Monday, 27 July 2015

The 2015 VMAs: my picks and predictions


This past week saw the launch of the nominations for the 2015 MTV Video Music Awards, music's most controversial night out. Past years have seen memorable moments like Madonna kissing Britney, Lady Gaga wearing a dress made out of meat and Kanye West interrupting Taylor Swift, but this year we haven't even had to wait for the ceremony to start for the VMAs to attract headlines. The publication of the nominated videos last week caused Nicki Minaj to call out racism and sexism in the music industry, which caused Taylor Swift to misunderstand and call out Nicki Minaj. Now that the pair have worked things out, it's time to look at the categories and pick my favourites. Sadly, voting is only open to US residents so I can't vote, but here's who I would vote for if I could (and who I think will actually win):

VIDEO OF THE YEAR
Beyoncé – “7/11″
Ed Sheeran – “Thinking Out Loud”
Taylor Swift ft. Kendrick Lamar – “Bad Blood”
Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars – “Uptown Funk”
Kendrick Lamar – “Alright”

My pick: Bad Blood
I don't think any of the other nominees are as good as Bad Blood here. The video is aesthetically pleasing, it sets out to tell a story and accomplishes it, plus there are all those cameos! My only complaint with this video is that it sets up a huge cast of characters who only get a few seconds of screen time each, which is disappointing because I want to learn all of their backstories and find out why they're all there helping Taylor out.


My prediction: Bad Blood
I honestly can't see how anything other than Bad Blood can win this award, although the VMA doesn't always go to the video that involves the most work - last year Miley Cyrus' Wrecking Ball beat Fancy by Iggy Azalea which is a far more interesting video in my opinion. Beyoncé has won a lot of VMAs but I don't think 7/11 is an outstanding video, neither is Thinking Out Loud, but both Beyoncé and Ed Sheeran have big fanbases so they're both possibilities, especially after the Taylor/Nicki thing. Uptown Funk was a huge song but the video isn't a strong contender, and Alright is a great video but I don't think the song is well-known enough to get the votes, it's the only one on the list that I haven't seen on TV.

BEST MALE VIDEO
Ed Sheeran – “Thinking Out Loud”
Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars – “Uptown Funk”
Kendrick Lamar – “Alright”
The Weeknd – “Earned It”
Nick Jonas – “Chains”

My pick: Alright
Having watched all five nominations, Alright is definitely the best video of the bunch. It's striking in black and white with beautiful cinematography, but I don't feel like it has a cohesive narrative which I believe it set out to do.


My prediction: Thinking Out Loud OR Uptown Funk
I think Ed Sheeran is the only one of the nominees with the kind of fanbase who will vote constantly (plus he's friends with Taylor Swift so I would imagine her fans will pick him too), even if the video is pretty dull. If he doesn't win I would predict that Uptown Funk will, purely because it was such a huge song that everyone loved. I believe Earned It was too explicit to be shown on daytime TV in the UK, so its content is likely to hurt its chances of success, and the Nick Jonas video was just too boring to discuss really, I'm not sure how that got nominated.

BEST FEMALE VIDEO
Beyoncé – “7/11″
Taylor Swift – “Blank Space”
Nicki Minaj – “Anaconda”
Sia – “Elastic Heart”
Ellie Goulding – “Love Me Like You Do”

My pick: Blank Space
I really want to say that Nicki Minaj is right and she deserves the award but I cannot fault Blank Space, it's definitely my favourite video out of all the nominees. The story fits perfectly with the lyrics, the art direction is flawless and Taylor does a great job of playing her character.


My prediction: Anaconda OR Blank Space
This is the category where we'll see how badly Taylor Swift was hurt by what went down on Twitter the other day. I think her fans will vote for her, but everyone else will vote for Nicki Minaj and I won't be disappointed either way. I'd also be quite happy with Sia winning, although her video is much simpler it's very powerful without detracting from the song. I can't stand Ellie Goulding though and I found her video incredibly boring, her scenes started out promising but led nowhere and they were interspersed with footage from Fifty Shades Of Grey which is very divisive in itself.

BEST HIP HOP VIDEO
Fetty Wap – “Trap Queen”
Nicki Minaj – “Anaconda”
Kendrick Lamar – “Alright”
Wiz Khalifa ft. Charlie Puth – “See You Again”
Big Sean ft. E-40 – “I Don’t F–k With You”

My pick: Anaconda
Anaconda is definitely the best of the hip-hop category. Nicki, like Taylor Swift, is playing with the stereotypes that surround her and having fun; I think this is the only video that made me laugh out loud. It has a little too much product placement for my liking (a lot of the hip-hop videos did) but this video is vibrant and entertaining just like its star.


My prediction: Anaconda
Nicki Minaj is the most mainstream artist on the list with a huge fanbase behind her and she's also the only woman on this year's line-up. The Big Sean video looked really impressive but it didn't really go anywhere, I'm not sure how I rate his chances of winning because I think he's a bigger star in the US than he is in the UK (I'd never heard the song or seen the video until these nominations came out). See You Again, on the other hand, was a huge hit song and the obituary footage from the Fast And Furious films might boost its chances of winning if the voters are feeling sentimental. I think Trap Queen has also been a big song over the summer but it felt like I was watching a hip hop video from the early 2000s, it used all the same tropes but didn't say anything new.

BEST POP VIDEO
Beyoncé – “7/11″
Ed Sheeran – “Thinking Out Loud”
Taylor Swift – “Blank Space”
Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars – “Uptown Funk”
Maroon 5 – “Sugar”

My pick: Blank Space
Like I said previously, there's nothing I can come up with as a critique to this video, it deserves to win everything!


My prediction: Blank Space
I think this one is hard to call, the first four are all nominated for so many awards and have big fanbases so I think it'll be a close call. The only one of these I haven't previously mentioned is Sugar, which is a fun video and actually my second favourite out of the category although I struggle to believe that it was all filmed in one day.

BEST ROCK VIDEO
Hozier – “Take Me To Church”
Fall Out Boy – “Uma Thurman”
Florence + the Machine – “Ship To Wreck”
Walk the Moon – “Shut Up and Dance”
Arctic Monkeys – “Why’d You Only Call Me When You’re High?”

My pick: Uma Thurman
I hadn't actually seen this video before even though I really like Fall Out Boy, and I was pleased to see that they still make videos that are really good fun. I love the way that it plays with the personas that the band members are perceived as having and I was pleasantly surprised to see that they didn't just do some kind of parody of the dance scene from Pulp Fiction.


My prediction: Shut Up And Dance
The only reason I'm predicting this one is because it's the only one I've actually seen on TV and it seems to be that one big indie pop song of the summer. I think it's a fun video but I would have preferred to see it with actors rather than the singer of the band. I also think Fall Out Boy will be a popular choice because they have really hardcore fans and so do Arctic Monkeys, although I can't believe their video is actually new enough for this year's awards. Hozier probably stands a good chance of winning because that song is amazing and the video is also really good, I just don't think the two go together at all - Take Me To Church is such a powerful song that it would have benefited more from a performance video I think, I found it really hard to concentrate on the storyline because of the song. The Florence video is also okay but I wouldn't give it much of a chance. The real disappointment here for me is the lack of any hard rock videos, this category is more 'alternative' than 'rock' to me and it really shows how rock has fallen out of fashion with the mainstream music media.

ARTIST TO WATCH
Fetty Wap – “Trap Queen”
Vance Joy – “Riptide”
George Ezra – “Budapest”
James Bay – “Hold Back The River”
FKA Twigs – “Pendulum”

My pick: Pendulum
This category is kind of hard to work out because the VMAs is supposed to be about music videos yet they seem to have nominated these artists as overall packages rather than choosing them on the merit of their videos. I think FKA Twigs is the only one of the five whose video showed real promise for making innovative work in the future, she kind of reminds me of Bjork in that her videos are more like art pieces than promotional clips. She also has a unique aesthetic which none of her fellow nominees have.


My prediction: Pendulum
Again, I'm predicting this solely based on the video here and not who I think is the most promising artist overall. That said, Vance Joy, George Ezra and James Bay all came out with these successful songs six months and more ago in the UK and none of them have had a big follow-up hit yet. Budapest and Hold Back The River are both performance clips which suit the songs but aren't worthy of a VMA and Riptide is the only one of the four male videos that I really found interesting. It almost has a David Lynch-esque feeling to it, but I didn't feel like there was any sort of story or link tying the images together which was disappointing to me.

BEST COLLABORATION
Taylor Swift ft. Kendrick Lamar – “Bad Blood”
Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars – “Uptown Funk”
Wiz Khalifa ft. Charlie Puth – “See You Again”
Ariana Grande & The Weeknd – “Love Me Harder”
Jessie J + Ariana Grande + Nicki Minaj – “Bang Bang”

My pick: Bad Blood
Taylor Swift and Kendrick Lamar are both given ample screen time in this video, they both have characters who make sense and the supporting cast do just that: support without completely stealing the spotlight from the two performers. Plus, of the five, it's the most exciting to watch.


My prediction: Bad Blood
Bad Blood is the one here that makes the best use of the collaboration. Mark Ronson looks hilariously out of place in Bruno Mars' gang, whereas Jessie, Ariana and Nicki don't come together as a gang enough for my liking; the whole time that Jessie J is performing she has a group of girls following her and it doesn't feel right for her not to have Ariana and Nicki standing either side. The same problem befalls Ariana Grande in Love Me Harder, she's talking to her partner in the song but she and The Weeknd are only seen together here standing back-to-back, which just doesn't make sense. See You Again is the one I'd rank second most likely to win because I think it works the best as a duet, although not necessarily as a collaborative video.

VIDEO WITH A SOCIAL MESSAGE
Jennifer Hudson – “I Still Love You”
Colbie Caillat – “Try”
Big Sean ft. Kanye West and John Legend – “One Man Can Change the World”
Rihanna – “American Oxygen”
Wale – “The White Shoes”

My pick: American Oxygen
It feels weird not having Rihanna nominated for a whole lot of these awards, especially when BBHMM was released just within the parameters for consideration, so I hope she takes this award. The social message isn't as in your face as in some of the other videos but I really like the old news footage which slowly gives way to the images of war that America are currently involved in. It uses patriotism to ask important questions and it doesn't feel like you're being preached to.


My prediction: I Still Love You
This video is cliché but it gets its point across very effectively and emotionally. Following the marriage equality bill I think US voters will really get behind a gay wedding story which this video delivers. One Man Can Change The World and The White Shoes are both about racism and black lives but neither one has an obvious arc and I came away unsure exactly what the message was. Try, on the other hand, has a very obvious message but I didn't like it as much as any of the others. The message here is that women are all beautiful without makeup which is a nice message but it feels really dated, suggesting that there's something bad about women who do choose to modify their appearance and that you can only be happy once you remove those modifications. Also the younger girls in the video over-act and it didn't feel natural at all, which totally contradicted the 'natural is best' image.

Professional categories - no fan voting:

BEST ART DIRECTION
Taylor Swift ft. Kendrick Lamar – “Bad Blood” (Charles Infante)
Snoop Dogg – “So Many Pros” (Jason Fijal)
Jack White – “Would You Fight For My Love” (Jeff Peterson)
The Chemical Brothers – “Go” (Michel Gondry)

Skrillex & Diplo – “Where Are U Now” with Justin Bieber (Brewer)

My pick: So Many Pros
I almost didn't look at the professional categories because they're not really a part of the award ceremony but after watching some of them I'm glad I did. Snoop Dogg's video is made up entirely of 70s style movie posters with Snoop and friends coming to life in them and the amount of different costume changes and work that went into animating everything must have taken so long to do. I can't come up with any criticism of this video's aesthetic, I loved every second.


My prediction: So Many Pros
I really hope the professionals who vote in this category were as impressed as I was with So Many Pros, although I really like the visual style of all five videos. Bad Blood has its dark action movie look, Would You Fight For My Love has a great set and beautiful colouring, Go is really quirky with its costumes although the settings aren't as spectacular as some of the others and Where Are U Now is fun to watch and works well with the song.

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Beyoncé – “7/11″ (Beyoncé, Chris Grant, Additional choreography: Gabriel Valenciano)
OK Go – “I Won’t Let You Down” (OK Go, air:man and Mori Harano)
Chet Faker – “Gold” (Ryan Heffington)
Ed Sheeran – “Don’t” (Nappy Tabs)
Flying Lotus ft. Kendrick Lamar – “Never Catch Me” (Keone and Mari Madrid)

My pick: I Won't Let You Down
OK Go are known for having insane choreography in their videos and this one is no exception. When it first started I thought it was just going to be them performing a dance routine on their little scooter things, similar to their treadmill video, but just as I was getting bored they moved to the outdoor scenes which blew me away. I loved the synchronised swimming style routine and the scenes with the coloured umbrellas, and by the end I was convinced that there wasn't another video that could top this. The final part where the huge group are opening and closing their umbrellas so that it looks like one of those scrolling LED light strips that spells out messages amazed me.


My prediction: Don't
I thought the Ed Sheeran video was kind of dull (it seems like I find more of less everything Ed Sheeran does to be a bit dull) but I think it will win votes because of the weird dancing style. The only time that the dancing impressed me was the scene with the couple moving together, other than that I didn't think it was very effective. I think Never Catch Me is also a contender because it uses young people and is the only one which uses dance to convey a social message. I liked Gold but the movements aren't as complex as the others, and 7/11 is only really made interesting through the editing. I'd like to think that I Won't Let You Down will be the winner but I wouldn't be surprised if OK Go win this award a lot.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Flying Lotus ft. Kendrick Lamar – “Never Catch Me” (Larkin Sieple)
Ed Sheeran – “Thinking Out Loud” (Daniel Pearl)
Taylor Swift ft. Kendrick Lamar – “Bad Blood” (Christopher Probst)
FKA Twigs – “Two Weeks” (Justin Brown)
Alt-J – “Left Hand Free” (Mike Simpson)

My pick: Two Weeks
This video was beautiful right from the start when I realised I could see dust particles in the air around FKA Twigs, but when I realised that the whole video was one very slow pan out from her face it became the winner for me. I can imagine that must be very hard to get right and it was executed perfectly here.


My prediction: Two Weeks
Most of these videos impressed me with their cinematography but I don't think any of them were as unique as Two Weeks. Never Catch Me was really cinematic (like Alright, which I thought would have been nominated here) and so is Bad Blood. Left Hand Free isn't particularly exciting, the images are pretty but not extraordinary, and I wasn't impressed with Thinking Out Loud at all, I felt like the cuts were in all the wrong places and there were points where the shots weren't set up as well as they could have been.

BEST DIRECTION
Taylor Swift ft. Kendrick Lamar – “Bad Blood” (Joseph Kahn)
Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars – “Uptown Funk” (Bruno Mars and Cameron Duddy)
Kendrick Lamar – “Alright” (Colin Tilley & The Little Homies)
Hozier – “Take Me To Church” (Brendan Canty and Conal Thomson of Feel Good Lost)
Childish Gambino – “Sober” (Hiro Murai)

My pick: Take Me To Church
I think Take Me To Church does the best job of telling a complete story here, although the ending isn't as satisfying as I'd have liked. It was hard for me to choose here between Hozier and Taylor Swift but I think the abundance of un-fleshed-out characters lets Bad Blood down.


My prediction: Take Me To Church
I wouldn't have nominated Alright here because I think the choice of images is what stops the video from being great, the shots are set up beautifully but the story isn't clear. I don't think Uptown Funk is a winner here because it moves around too much and I'm not sure that the performance scene at the end really works. I thought Sober was an enjoyable video but it's much more contained than my two favourites so I don't think it stands much chance.

BEST EDITING
Beyoncé – “7/11″ (Beyoncé, Ed Burke, Jonathan Wing)
Ed Sheeran – “Don’t” (Jacquelyn London)
Taylor Swift ft. Kendrick Lamar – “Bad Blood” (Chancler Haynes at Cosmo Street)
A$AP Rocky – “L$D” (Dexter Navy)
Skrillex & Diplo “Where Are U Now” with Justin Bieber (Brewer)

My pick: L$D
I was completely unaware of L$D as a song and video until I watched it for this blog which is a shame because it was really fun to watch. It's really colourful and trippy which matches its title, and it wouldn't be nearly as interesting without the psychedelic editing. Before I watched it I was convinced that Where Are U Now would be my favourite because I also love the doodles added into all the shots of Justin Bieber, as well as the scenes showing people drawing on the frames, so I'd also be really happy if it were to take the prize.


My prediction: 7/11
7/11 is up for a whole lot of awards even though I think it's a fairly average video. I think the editing is where it shines, the harsh cuts really match with the song and MTV loves to give moonmen to Beyoncé. Bad Blood is well put together and so are L$D and Where Are U Now, but the only time I really noticed the editing in Don't was when the dancer was in the pool and the sound changed to create the feeling of being underwater, which isn't that impressive compared with the amount of work in the other videos.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Taylor Swift ft. Kendrick Lamar – “Bad Blood” (Ingenuity Studios)
FKA Twigs – “Two Weeks” (Gloria FX, Tomash Kuzmytskyi, and Max Chyzhevskyy)
Childish Gambino – “Telegraph Ave.” (Gloria FX)
Skrillex & Diplo “Where Are U Now” with Justin Bieber (Brewer)
Tyler, The Creator – “F****** Young/Death Camp” (Gloria FX)

My pick: Where Are U Now
I think the doodling that's overlaid onto this video makes it so interesting to watch that it has to be my favourite. There are so many frames featuring different artwork that you could watch it 100 times and still notice something new, and the mix of normal scenes and colourful ones is just right. Being able to see people coming in and drawing their artwork onto each cell is also a nice touch, it really made me appreciate the amount of work involved in putting a video like that together.


My prediction: Telegraph Ave.
This category is very hard to predict. As I was watching Telegraph Ave I didn't understand why it was nominated right until the very end when Childish Gambino is suddenly taken over by some sort of tentacle monster. While it looked impressive I felt like the effects came in much too late for me to favour it over the competition, but the critics might think differently. The effects in Two Weeks are so subtle that I didn't realise it was digitally manipulated until right at the end when it had zoomed out enough to show that FKA Twigs was giant compared to the dancers, at first I'd assumed they were far away until I saw their limbs moving in front of the singer. Tyler, The Creator doesn't have that many effects in his video and Bad Blood uses fairly standard explosions and text, although it does look stunning. I'm really looking forward to seeing what wins in this category.

One big surprise for me this year is that there isn't a category for Best Lyric Video which was included last year, as far as I know the lyric video hasn't fallen out of favour but perhaps there weren't enough innovations in the field to warrant a special category. The MTV Clubland Award has also gone this year, despite the growth in popularity of dance (or EDM) music in the US.

Voting for the VMAs is open now for US residents at http://www.mtv.com/news/2219077/2015-vma-nominations/ if anyone wishes to vote for their favourites or vote for mine on my behalf. The show is broadcast live on the 30th of August and is hosted by Miley Cyrus, come back after that to see if my predictions were right!

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